When will the Covid-19 lockdown end? Well that’s the trillion dollar question the world is facing right now.
A History of Mystery understands that the daily updates, changes and decisions made by the WHO and world governments make news about the Covid-19 virus very time-sensitive, so we’re going to look at a longer period of time in the past, present and future, to conclude when the lockdown will likely end.
First of all, let’s start with briefly looking at the history of pandemics and virus outbreaks across the world.
The first ever pandemic was the Plague of Justinian which dated back to 541 AD and lasted two years with a second outbreak happening in the year 750. Over all, the plague was responsible for between 75-200 million deaths.
The second was the notorious Black Death or Black Plague which swept through Europe in the 14th century and wiped out up to 50% of Europe’s entire population. The outbreak was a brutal pandemic that lasted 4 years with a vicious second wave in the 17th century.
Moving closer towards present day, the Consumption, which was a late 19th century tuberculosis outbreak, primarily attacking America and Europe lasting for many years, and despite the BGC vaccine being developed in 1921, tuberculosis is still active in society today, claiming 1.5 million lives in 2018.
Another was the 1918 outbreak of swine flu that swept through our society in the ending months of World War I. Also known as Spanish flu, the 1918 influenza and H1N1, the pandemic caused within the region of 50 million deaths.
In 2009, the world saw swine flu attack again with 1.6 million people infected and over 18,000 deaths.
Then in November 2019, the Covid-19 virus strikes. But how does it compare to other outbreaks, pandemics, and when will the worldwide lockdown and quarantine end?
So far, there’s a lots of data and science on Covid-19, but not enough. However, by looking at pandemic history and accounting for everything from population increase, public transportation, and medical advances to name a few, we can pair that with the analytical data from each country in the world and come up with a predication.
The Covid-19 Corona Virus has already out-ranked the 2009 swine flu outbreak and is well on the way to becoming a problem measurable in scale to the 1800s tuberculosis outbreak. The good news is, it’s somewhat unlikely it will ever reach the numbers that the Black Death did due to the lockdown and the advancement in medicine, allowing many countries the world to literally brute force a vaccine.
It’s a certainty that Covid-19 will not end in 2020. It’s almost certain that Covid-19 won’t end in 2021. And it’s very likely that Covid-19 will be around for many years to come, even when a vaccine is finally developed, which we expect will be sometime in late 2021 or early 2022.
So when will the strict lockdowns end and when will humanity get normality back into their lives?…
Each country’s government will make their own decisions on when to lift their respective lockdowns, but the enhanced quarantine will likely come to an end for most of the world by the end of July, 2020. Though a full and complete end to lockdown and quarantine will likely not end until 2021 for most countries around the world.
A lockdown that extends into 2021 will not be anything like today’s lockdown, but restrictions will still be in place. It will be a far more relaxed lockdown, likely with strict social distancing measures and hand sanitization stations set up.
By the end of July, 2020, we should expect that most countries see an end to curfew, the return of public transportation, the start of international travel open, as well as most stores including malls and restaurants.
Most bars, clubs, concerts, conventions and events where people gather in masses, including sporting events, may not see the light of day until 2021. For many countries that is already something they’re preparing for, specifically the Philippines.
Most countries will continue in their current lockdown procedures until at least the end of June, but life going back to what we know as normal could be a couple of years. However, the effects of Covid-19 could well change our way of living forever in subtle ways, introducing a new way of life where social distancing, temperature checks and sanitizing becomes mandatory.